Forecasting Prices and Congestion for Transmission Grid Operation
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چکیده
This project is focused on the design of price forecasting tools for market operators and for market traders, taking into account the distinct purposes, data availability, and time horizons of the distinct users. Empirical price data from the MISO and RTE have been analyzed. A combined model is developed to forecast MISO day-ahead nodal prices. An ARIMA model is constructed to forecast RTE week-ahead daily system average price. The unsatisfactory result of the pure statistical model for the RTE price data calls for the adoption of a more structured approach. To facilitate the portfolio management process in power markets, a structured forecasting model incorporating demand scenario generation is proposed.
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